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Public Deliverables
D1.1 HILP Taxonomy and Definitions
This deliverable aims to provide a working definition and taxonomy of High Impact Low Probability events (HILPs) that support the development of the review of the state-of-the-art, methodology and theoretical framework of Horizon Europe’s project AGILE.
D1.2 AGILE’s Approach to HILP
The deliverable examines resilience to HILP events, rare occurrences that can lead to severe societal, infrastructural, and service disruptions, often catching systems unprepared due to their unpredictable nature.
D1.3 AGILE’s approach to HILPs
Building on previous research within the project, deliverable 1.3 examines how HILP events interact with critical infrastructure dependencies, social vulnerabilities, and risk perception challenges, highlighting the importance of creative and lateral thinking in scenario planning
D2.1 HILP Platform Requirements and Architecture
This deliverable is focused on establishing requirements for a reference library of historical HILP events. Two key activities were conducted: an online stakeholder survey and a requirements workshop.
D3.1 ST Methodology Framework and Toolkit
D3.1 aims to establish a framework for the development of the AGILE’s stress testing methodology. It defines key terms, introduces stress testing, and outlines the initial approach.
D4.1 Case study scenarios
This deliverable, D4.1 Case Study Scenarios, outlines AGILE’s approach to scenario development for the stress test implementation. It explains how the scenario creation approach aims to balance a risk-agnostic perspective through randomisation and the specific interests of the case studies to ensure relevance and applicability.
D6.1 AGILE – Impact Strategy
D6.1 presents the Impact Strategy for the AGILE project. It establishes a structured framework for stakeholder engagement, employing the “inform, consult, and collaborate” model to ensure comprehensive involvement.
D6.2 Interim Report on the Implementation of the Impact Strategy
D6.2 presents the interim assessment of the Impact Strategy’s implementation during the first half of the AGILE project. It reports on progress made in operationalizing the framework defined in D6.1, covering stakeholder engagement, communication and dissemination activities, and the first steps toward exploitation planning.
D7.1 Project Management Plan
This Deliverable presents the standardised rules and procedures for the AGILE consortium, with particular focus on decision-making, roles, communication, reporting and publications.
Posters & Presentations
Definitions and taxonomy for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) and outlier events
G. Pescaroli, L. McMillan, M. Gordon, N.Y. Aydin, T. Comes, M. Maraschini, J. Palma Oliveira, S. Torresan, B. Trump, M. Pelling, and I. Linkov
Progressing the research on systemic risk, cascading disasters, and compound events
Gianluca Pescaroli, Anawat Suppasri, Luca Galbusera
Assessment and improvement of digital resilience in the energy crisis caused by missile strikes
Vitalii Zubok
A Method for Reducing the Uncertainty Caused by a Power Outage During a Cyber Incident Response
Vitalii Zubok, Roman Drahuntsov
Root cause of Critical Infrastructure Failures in the 2023 Southeast Turkey Earthquake: A case study from Hatay
Nazli Yonca Aydin, Mine Imirzalioglu, Sebnem Duzgun
High-Impact Low-Probability events and Systemic Resilience: A Network-Based Methodology and its application to the metropolitan city of Venice
Silvia Torresan, Margherita Maraschini, Davide Mauro Ferrario, Samuele Casagrande, Saman Ghaffarian, Benjamin D. Trump, Igor Linkov, José Palma-Oliveira, and Andrea Critto
SRA Iberia Poster
José Manuel Palma-Oliveira and Dalila Antunes showcased our innovative approach towards agnostic and system-focused resilience assessments with a dedicated poster detailing our framework for Resilience Stress Testing in AGILE.
BMBF Poster
AGILE had the honor of participating in the “From Lab to Life” panel. Alongside RiskPACC, LINKS EU Project, DIRECTED Project and Firelogue, we showcased how the transfer of scientific knowledge to practical applications can succeed.
Civil Protection Forum Poster
Andreas Seipelt and Gordana Cveljo represented AGILE and showcased our innovative work with a dedicated poster and distributed informative flyers.
Other Communication material
Project Concept Flyer
AGILE will understand, anticipate, and manage High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events from a systemic risk and resilience perspective. This will be achieved by designing, developing, and applying a holistic methodological framework and practical tools.
HILP Workshop Flyer
Join us in co-creating a reference library of historical high impact low probability disasters that will help us exploring the underlying patterns and mechanism.
Share your experience and insights on the importance and links between different vulnerabilities to help us understand why some hazards become disasters.
Publications
Definitions and taxonomy for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) and outlier events
G. Pescaroli, L. McMillan, M. Gordon, N.Y. Aydin, T. Comes, M. Maraschini, J. Palma Oliveira, S. Torresan, B. Trump, M. Pelling, and I. Linkov
Progressing the research on systemic risk, cascading disasters, and compound events
Gianluca Pescaroli, Anawat Suppasri, Luca Galbusera
Assessment and improvement of digital resilience in the energy crisis caused by missile strikes
Vitalii Zubok
A Method for Reducing the Uncertainty Caused by a Power Outage During a Cyber Incident Response
Vitalii Zubok, Roman Drahuntsov
Root cause of Critical Infrastructure Failures in the 2023 Southeast Turkey Earthquake: A case study from Hatay
Nazli Yonca Aydin, Mine Imirzalioglu, Sebnem Duzgun
High-Impact Low-Probability events and Systemic Resilience: A Network-Based Methodology and its application to the metropolitan city of Venice
Silvia Torresan, Margherita Maraschini, Davide Mauro Ferrario, Samuele Casagrande, Saman Ghaffarian, Benjamin D. Trump, Igor Linkov, José Palma-Oliveira, and Andrea Critto