HILP Concept

Black Swans, coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” is a concept within the broader context of risk management, that represents unpredictable and rare events with significant consequences. In the realm of rare and impactful occurrences, Black Swans represent instances where unpredictability reaches an extreme level, resulting in extraordinary and often unprecedented impacts.

In the context of High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events, Black Swans stand as the giants of unpredictability, reshaping landscapes and challenging assumptions. Black Swans exemplify the severity of HILP events and are characterized by their unpredictability, high impact, and retrospective predictability. While challenging to foresee, these events have profound and lasting consequences. Investigating HILP events involves recognizing the role of Black Swans and preparing for uncertainty.

Example:
The global financial crisis of 2008 is often considered a Black Swan event. The magnitude and widespread impact of the crisis, fueled by complex financial instruments and systemic failures, caught many by surprise.

Photo: TD Ameritrade

Dragon Kings, a concept created by physicist Didier Sornette in his 2009 paper “Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises”, characterize outliers in statistical distributions that have a disproportionately large impact compared to other extreme events. These outliers deviate significantly from the expected behaviour predicted by traditional statistical models. The name “Dragon Kings” itself is metaphorical, drawing an analogy between these extreme events and mythical creatures like dragons that stand out in size and impact.

Dragon Kings, within the realm of HILP events, symbolize extreme outliers that demand attention due to their potential to cause massive impacts. They serve as a crucial aspect of understanding HILP events, showcasing instances where the combination of low probability and substantial impact becomes pronounced.

Example:
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011 serves as an example of a Dragon King event. While the occurrence of nuclear accidents is

Photo: TD Ameritrade

Grey Rhino, a metaphor formulated by Michele Wucker in his book “The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore”, represents highly probable and high impact events that are often neglected or ignored, even though they are easily anticipated and addressed. In contrast to “Black Swan,” which represents unpredictable, rare, and extreme events, “Gray Rhino” emphasizes the need for proactive and strategic thinking in the face of more foreseeable challenges.

Grey Rhino events within HILP scenarios  are risks that, if addressed, can mitigate severe impacts. Understanding HILP events requires acknowledging and mitigating Grey Rhinos.

Grey Rhinos are integral to the understanding of HILP events, showcasing instances where known risks, despite being predictable, can lead to significant consequences if not addressed. In other words, they are characterized by their visibility and predictability, yet societal tendencies to overlook them. In the broader analysis of HILP events, recognizing and proactively managing Grey Rhinos is paramount.

Example:
The 2008 housing market crash in the United States is a classic example of a Grey Rhino event. The risks associated with subprime mortgages were visible, yet they were often ignored or underestimated. The predictable dangers led to a severe economic downturn, emphasizing the importance of addressing known but neglected risks.

Photo: Book Cover – Gray Rhino, Michele Wucker

79 AD Eruption: The eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD, near Pompeii, Italy, is one of the most infamous volcanic events, estimated to be a VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) 5 event. This catastrophic eruption saw the violent release of magma, gas, and ash from the volcano’s summit. Pyroclastic flows, traveling at speeds exceeding 100 km/h, inundated Pompeii, Herculaneum, and several other nearby settlements. The eruption column soared over 30kms, dispersing ash and pumice far and wide.

The tragedy buried and preserved Pompeii and Herculaneum under layers of volcanic debris. Thousands perished from asphyxiation, thermal shock, and other volcanic hazards, with exact casualty figures still uncertain. Archaeological excavations have since uncovered human remains and artifacts, offering a poignant glimpse into the scale of the disaster.

1631 AD Eruption: Over 1500 years later, on 16th December 1631, Mount Vesuvius erupted again, continuing into the next day. Although not as massive as the 79 AD eruption in magnitude, it still wrought significant destruction and loss of life. Historical records are limited, but estimates suggest fatalities ranged between 3000 and 6000 people.

These events exemplify the severe impact of volcanic eruptions, highlighting the need for awareness and preparedness in the face of such natural disasters.

Photo Credit: www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/day-history-eruption-of-mt-vesuvius-1631

Katla Eruption, 1755:
Katla, a large subglacial volcano in southern Iceland beneath the Mýrdalsjökull glacier, has a history of erupting roughly every 60 years. The 1755 eruption, beginning on October 17th and lasting 118 days, was marked by incessant earthquakes, a massive jökullhlaup (glacier-outburst flood), and extensive ash fallout.

The eruption caused widespread destruction, burying farms under ash and pumice, and leading to the abandonment of around 50 farms. The ash cloud produced periods of very low visibility and was recorded as far as the Shetlands and the Atlantic Ocean. The resulting famine, exacerbated by unseasonably cold weather, led to a significant population decline.

Historical Volcanic Activity in Iceland:
Iceland has seen several major eruptions, including the Eldgjá eruption (934–938), the Hekla eruption (1300), and the Laki eruption (1783), which indirectly led to thousands of deaths due to toxic gases and famine. These events underscore the severe impact of volcanic activity on Iceland’s population and landscape.

Challenges for Emergency Management:
The Katla eruption of 1755, coinciding with a period of extreme cold, destroyed valuable farmland and fisheries, highlighting the importance of alternative supply sources. This led to the development of emergency response plans for glacial outburst floods, crucial for modern-day disaster preparedness.

Modern eruptions, such as the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, demonstrate the ongoing need for robust emergency management strategies, particularly in mitigating disruptions to the aviation sector.

Photo Credit: perlan.is

The 1815 Mount Tambora Eruption:
On April 10th, 1815, Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted with unprecedented force, registering a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 7. The eruption unleashed pyroclastic flows and sent ash clouds soaring into the stratosphere, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of people. The immediate impact was catastrophic, with entire villages buried under volcanic debris and tsunamis triggered by the force of the eruption.
The eruption’s after effects were felt worldwide. The massive amount of volcanic ash and gases released into the atmosphere caused a significant drop in global temperatures, leading to what became known as the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816. This abrupt climate change resulted in widespread crop failures, food shortages, and social unrest across the Northern Hemisphere.

Challenges for Emergency Management:
The scale of the Mount Tambora eruption presented unprecedented challenges for the local population and authorities. The devastation of agricultural lands, combined with the onset of a volcanic winter, created severe food shortages and economic hardship. The lack of immediate international communication and aid compounded the crisis, leaving the affected regions to fend for themselves.
In today’s context, such an eruption would still pose enormous challenges for emergency management, particularly in terms of global food security, disaster relief logistics, and climate impact mitigation. The 1815 eruption serves as a stark reminder of the far-reaching consequences of HILP events and the importance of global preparedness.

Picture Credit: Rain of fire … the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815

This extraordinary event, first observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington, provides critical insights into the potential impact of extreme space weather on our modern world.

The Event:
On the morning of September 1, 1859, Richard C. Carrington witnessed a massive coronal mass ejection (CME) erupt from the Sun. This CME, traveling at speeds over 2000 km/s, reached Earth in just 17.6 hours—an incredibly short time frame for such events. The resulting solar flare was so intense that it matched the brightness of the Sun itself for about five minutes.
When the CME struck Earth’s magnetosphere, it triggered an unprecedented magnetic storm and marked the most equatorward sighting of auroras ever recorded.

Impact:
The storm wreaked havoc on telegraph systems across Europe and North America, with some telegraph lines sparking and catching fire due to induced currents. Compasses became unreliable, and reports from the time noted that ships at sea struggled to navigate.
The Boston Globe reported on September 3, 1859: “Yesterday there was a great magnetic storm which affected all the telegraph lines in the country… The storm also affected the magnetic compasses on ships, and some vessels lost their way.”

Challenges for Emergency Management:
The Carrington Event stands as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities we face in an age of digital dependence. A similar event today could disrupt global power grids, disable satellites, and cripple communication networks, leading to cascading failures across critical infrastructure.
Emergency management must contend with the limited predictability of such solar storms and the short warning times that current space weather monitoring systems provide.

This necessitates:

• Robust Contingency Planning
• Infrastructure Resilience and
• International Collaboration

The lessons learned from the Carrington Event is clear—while we cannot prevent such natural phenomena, we can prepare for them, mitigating their impact on our interconnected world.

Photo Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

The Event:
On August 26, 1883, the volcanic island of Krakatoa, located in Indonesia, experienced a series of massive explosions that culminated in one of the most powerful volcanic eruptions ever recorded. The northern two-thirds of the island collapsed into the sea, triggering enormous tsunamis and pyroclastic flows traveling at speeds of 300 km/hr, wiped out entire settlements.
The eruption unleashed a column of ash that soared 80kms into the sky, covering an area of 800,000 sq.kms, blocked sunlight and plunging the area into darkness for over two days. Globally, the ash cloud acted as a solar radiation filter, resulting in a significant temperature drop of 0.5°C over the following year, with temperatures not returning to normal for 5 years.

The Aftermath:
The eruption and the tsunamis claimed the lives of approx. 36,000 people, with more than 34,000 deaths attributed to the tsunamis alone. Hundreds of coastal towns and villages were obliterated, and the loss of life on nearby islands like Sebesi was total. The global climatic impact was equally severe, affecting weather patterns and agriculture for years, demonstrating the far-reaching consequences of such an event.

Key Challenges for Emergency Management:
The Krakatoa eruption highlights the immense threat super volcanoes pose. A similar event today could result in:

• Global Disruption: Major impacts on agriculture, weather patterns, and food supply, leading to economic instability.
• Infrastructure and Communication Breakdown: Disruptions to global infrastructure and communication networks due to climatic changes.
• Societal and Regional Instability: Potential to trigger societal upheaval, conflicts, and regional crises, especially in vulnerable areas like ASEAN.
• Preparedness and international collaboration are crucial to managing such catastrophic events effectively.

The 1883 Krakatoa eruption underscores the need for global readiness to manage natural disasters of this scale, emphasizing proactive planning and resilience.

Photo Credit: Collection Leiden University Library, KITLV 5888, CC BY-SA 4.0

On June 30, 1908, the Tunguska region of Siberia experienced one of the most significant cosmic impact events in recorded history. Early that morning, eyewitnesses reported hearing “cannon shots” and seeing “columns of fire,” followed by intense “thunderclaps.” An area of over 2,000 square kilometers was devastated — trees were debranched, felled, or had their tops sheared off, with reports of forest fires for miles around. The explosion, believed to have been caused by a meteoroid or comet disintegrating in the atmosphere, produced an atmospheric shockwave that flattened the forest in an area about 50 km in diameter.
The event also led to “bright nights” across Europe and Western Asia, where the sky remained lit for days afterward, a phenomenon only previously observed after the Krakatoa eruption in 1883. While the remoteness of the Tunguska site limited its impact on human life and infrastructure, the sheer scale of the destruction still poses a sobering reminder of the risk posed by space impacts.

Key Challenges for Emergency Management
The Tunguska Event serves as a stark example of the catastrophic potential of low-probability, high-impact events. Had this explosion occurred over a populated area, the destruction would have been vast, with significant loss of life and severe infrastructure damage.

• Such events highlight the need for robust emergency management strategies:
  The importance of global monitoring and early warning systems for cosmic threats.
• Preparedness for unpredictable environmental changes, such as forest fires and atmospheric disturbances.
• Investment in disaster resilience to reduce the impact of sudden, large-scale events.

Though the Tunguska Event happened over a century ago, its lessons remain highly relevant today. In an increasingly interconnected world, the potential consequences of a similar event on global populations, infrastructure, and economies cannot be ignored.

Photo Credit: From Wikipedia – Leonid Kulik, the expedition to the Tunguska event – Vokrug Sveta, 1931