About the project
Our Concept/Approach
The overall concept of the AGILE project, shown in the figure below, comprises three interlinked pillars. The project’s logic is inspired by and follows the DRM cycle while taking an integrated approach that is aimed to provide an increased understanding of HILP events and risks to develop evidence-based approaches to resilience building.
Lack of predictability in an increasingly complex world limits the value of risk assessments for HILP events. However, building system resilience can provide value by allowing faster recovery and adaptation after system disruptions, whether they were predicted or not. In imagining the impacts of an uncertain future threat, the concepts of vulnerability, risk, and resilience are all informative, but in the event of an actual disruptive event, resilience will be most influential in determining the system’s future because resilience sets its trajectory for recovery.
Project Ambitions
AMBITION 1
Conceptualize the notion of HILP Events for Knowledge-Based DRM Innovation
- Define HILP events across diverse social-technical-environmental systems
- Establish a consistent definition validated by stakeholders
- Employ advanced data collection and machine learning for in-depth analysis
- Create a taxonomy and reference library for HILP events, incorporating associated risk management interventions
- Create empirical insights into decision-making behavior for weak signals and HILP events
AMBITION 2
Model and Analyze HILP Events as Complex, Large-Scale, Interlinked Risk Patterns
- Operationalize a theoretical framework for anticipating cascade chains
- Develop replicable methodologies for scenario building related to HILP events
- Enhance understanding of crisis escalation dynamics and system resilience
- Model resilience interventions robust to a range of possible futures
AMBITION 3
Evidence-Informed Disaster Management Processes Addressing Common Points of Failure
- Connect cause with effect through advanced technologies and information-sharing platforms
- Leverage data-driven modelling and simulation for effective decision-making and disaster management
- Develop replicable approaches for stress testing
- Produce knowledge about HILP using scenarios based on the understanding of common points of failures to both known and emerging risks
- Build resilience by addressing cross-sectoral effects and common vulnerabilities
#followthejellyfish
Why is the AGILE project represented by a jellyfish?
In October 2013, in Oskarshamn, Sweden, a massive swarm of Aurelia aurita, also known as moon jellyfish, forced the shutdown of Sweden’s largest nuclear reactor. This unexpected event highlights the need for proactive solutions in the face of HILP events. This is not an isolated incident, the clash between jellyfish and hulking nuclear power plants has a long history. In 2008, a swarm of jellyfish shut down a nuclear power plant in California, and three years later, a similar incident occurred at a plant in Japan. In 2017, jellyfish caused disruptions at a power plant in Israel and in Scotland in 2021.
Thus, our logo captures the essence of navigating through the unexpected. Our commitment is to navigate through the unpredictable and find creative ways to address challenges like jellyfish-induced shutdowns.
In addition, the jellyfish also represent a deeper symbolism of AGILE:
- Symbol of Agility: The graceful and fluid nature of the jellyfish mirrors our project’s agility. We adapt and flow with the unpredictable, just like these mesmerizing creatures in the ocean.
- Flexibility: The effortless movements of jellyfish capture the essence of our project’s flexible approach. We’re prepared to adjust our strategies in response to HILP events.
- Scalability: Much like the jellyfish’s ability to grow in size and complexity, our project is scalable. We can expand our solutions to meet the ever-changing demands of challenging situations.
- Element of Surprise: The jellyfish brings an element of surprise, and it’s no different in our project. We’re dedicated to innovation, constantly surprising ourselves and others with creative solutions to complex problems.
