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Pioneering resilience in a world of unpredictability

AGILE

AGnostic risk management for high Impact Low probability Events

 

The AGILE project, funded by the European Union and UKRI, is a beacon of innovation in Disaster Risk Management (DRM). It brings together a transdisciplinary consortium comprising research organizations, NGOs, SMEs, first responders and local/regional authorities to design, develop, and apply a comprehensive methodological framework and practical tools for understanding, anticipating, and managing High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events with a systemic risk and resilience perspective. This research approach is dedicated to implementation by and for practitioners’ and policy-makers’ needs and requirements on local, regional and national levels. AGILE will combine and integrate a wide range of established and innovative methodologies into a novel and replicable multi-sectoral risk and resilience stress testing methodology.

Disaster Risk Management

Mission

To empower DRM stakeholders on local, regional, and national levels with improved capacities and capabilities. Through innovative methodologies and collaboration, we aim to enhance societal resilience to new and emerging risks, ultimately contributing to a safer and more secure future.

Vision

AGILE envisions a world where risk management is not only based on well-characterized threats but also includes a systemic, risk-agnostic perspective. Our vision is to provide stakeholders with the tools and knowledge needed to confidently meet the challenges posed by HILP events. AGILE is fostering a global community that is proactive, resilient, and well-prepared for the uncertainties of the modern age.

Cveljo Gordana

Gordana Cveljo

Project Coordinator

AGILE’s multi-disciplinary knowledge base, the validated toolkit for stress tests and the guidelines for capacity development aims to improve societal resilience and mitigate the impact of unexpected or cascading events. By utilizing these tools, practitioners and first responders will be enabled to enhance their resilience and operational readiness to various threats posed by HILP events.

Gianluca Pescaroli

Gianluca Pescaroli

Project Scientific Lead

In an increasingly uncertain world, we operate under the assumption that disruptions are inevitable and will have unpredictable cascading effects. Through AGILE, we aim to revolutionize the preparation and management of HILP events. By identifying common points of failure across different threats, we seek to enhance the organization’s capacity to handle complex crises. For this, we will develop and apply a new stress testing methodology that could enhance system wide resilience.

AGILE - Our Results

Our results

HILP Definition

High Impact Low Probability Events (HILPs) are rare events that may result in catastrophic impacts on people, infrastructure, utilities, critical services, and wider societal functions. These events are characterized by a lack of precedence, high levels of uncertainty in their predictability, and combinations of effects, often coming as surprises or shocks. They may not meet defined thresholds for mitigation actions and will require innovative, creative approaches to raise awareness, leverage established capabilities, and enhance both short- and long-term preparedness.

Check our results
AGILE - Our Results
AGILE Consortium

Who we are

The AGILE consortium comprises Universities, Research Centers, NGOs, First responders, and local, regional and national authorities from 10 different countries.

Meet the team

News & Events

COP29

COP29

Nov 18, 2024

Baku, Azerbaijan

Throughout the scientific development phases of the project, co-creation approaches will be of central importance. Close collaboration with various non-scientific staff and key-stakeholders (e.g., practitioners, regional, national, and EU-level policymakers, and DRM researchers), who will be setting the key-requirements and criteria for the development and later assessment of the methodologies, approaches and tools will therefore be engaged in all elements and activities of the project.

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