The 4th General Assembly of the AGILE project was held in Rotterdam, hosted by Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond and the Municipality of Rotterdam at the World Port Center. Bringing together partners from across Europe and beyond, the two-day meeting focused on advancing AGILE’s work on HILP events, cascading effects, interdependencies, and resilience in the face of unexpected disruptions.

Over the course of the meeting, partners engaged in in-depth discussions and collaborative workshops covering key project activities, including:

• Progress on the HILP Reference Library and the Stress Test methodology, with valuable host perspectives on strengthening methodological development and stakeholder communication;
• Exchange of lessons learned and practical insights across work packages;
• World café sessions dedicated to stakeholder engagement, exploitation planning, and risk communication;
• Ongoing work on scenario building, cyber resilience, and translating research outputs into actionable tools.

Beyond the technical programme, the General Assembly also provided opportunities to strengthen collaboration and informal exchange. Thanks to the warm hospitality of the hosts, participants were able to connect outside the meeting rooms, including a guided exploration of Rotterdam’s historic port area and a social dinner showcasing the city’s unique maritime setting.

The AGILE consortium extends its sincere thanks to Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond and the Municipality of Rotterdam, as well as all organisers and partners, for their commitment to making the 4th General Assembly both productive and memorable. The discussions, insights, and connections developed in Rotterdam will play a key role in shaping the next phase of the AGILE project.

An article by Dr Gianluca Pescaroli, Scientific Lead of the AGILE project and Professor at UCL Risk & Disaster Reduction (RDR), has been published in the Crisis Response Journal. Titled “HILP events, risk agnosticism, and stress-testing resilience”, the article explores the challenges posed by High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events and the limitations of traditional risk assessment approaches.

The article discusses the concept of risk agnosticism and the importance of stress-testing systems for resilience against unexpected and cascading disruptions. These perspectives closely align with AGILE’s focus on improving preparedness, governance, and resilience in the face of complex and uncertain risks.

Read the full article in Crisis Response Journal:
https://crisis-response.com/Publisher/File.aspx?id=378209

AGILE successfully completed its first EC review meeting.

On May 12, 2025, the AGILE consortium presented its first 16 months of work to the European Commission’s Research Executive Agency in Brussels.

The review confirmed that the project is delivering strong results in pioneering agnostic risk management for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events,  those rare, catastrophic events that test the very core of resilience.

A huge THANK YOU to our dedicated consortium partners and the EC reviewers for the rich dialogue and encouraging feedback.

The AGILE Project’s 2nd General Assembly (GA) meeting took place in Setúbal, Portugal, from 8th to 10th October 2024. The event was hosted by partner ENA and brought together consortium members from 15 organizations across Europe, USA and Japan to discuss progress, key milestones, and the project’s next steps in enhancing resilience against High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events.

Key Outcomes of the Meeting:

Year 1 Achievements & Project Objectives:

The Year 1 progress report highlighted significant achievements and outlined key objectives for the upcoming period. The main areas of focus included:

• D3.1 Stress Test Methodology and Toolkit: Review and finalization of the methodology to integrate comments from internal reviews and GA discussions. Due in mid-November 2024.
• D1.2 AGILE’s Approach to HILP: Completion of the SWOT analysis on common failure points, vulnerabilities, and resilience. Due in mid-November 2024.
• D1.3 Strategic Foresight in HILP: Development of a new deliverable focusing on the role of strategic foresight, lateral thinking, and creativity in AGILE’s approach to HILP, due by January 2025.

To ensure the timely submission of high-quality deliverables, any identified risks will be communicated to the Coordinator, with due date adjustments available in consultation with the Project Officer.

Work Package Updates:

Each work package leader provided updates on progress, including research findings, collaborations, and developments in methodologies for risk assessment, resilience strategies, and stress-testing frameworks.

Future Deliverables:

The consortium reviewed upcoming deliverables, including publications, reports, and a collaborative online platform designed to improve knowledge-sharing across stakeholders involved in disaster risk management (DRM).

Collaborative Workshops:

Interactive workshops enabled participants to engage in discussions on improving the project’s impact, with a focus on integrating real-world applications in disaster response and climate change resilience.

Networking and Partnerships:

The event fostered networking opportunities between research institutions, NGOs, SMEs, first responders, and government bodies, strengthening collaborations for future project activities.

Keynote by Patricia Gaspar:

A highlight of the event was the inspiring keynote speech by Patricia Gaspar, where she addressed the importance of cross-sector collaboration in disaster risk management and resilience building. She emphasized the need for innovative approaches to address the challenges posed by HILP events, and how collective efforts can improve preparedness and response at local, regional, and global levels.

Next Steps:

Attendees outlined key actions for the next phase of the project, emphasizing the importance of maintaining momentum and cross-sectoral collaboration to achieve the project’s ambitious goals.

Closing Remarks:

The GA meeting concluded with a renewed commitment from all partners to address systemic risks and enhance the resilience of European societies.

Our AGILE project partner, José Manuel Palma-Oliveira participated in the XVII Conference of Environmental Psychology in Málaga, Spain, organized by the Association of Environmental Psychology (PSICAMB) from February 3-6, 2025. The event focused on Psychology in the Face of New Environmental Challenges, bringing together experts to discuss the role of psychology in global environmental issues.

José presented a poster titled “Agnosticism in Societal and Psychological Impacts of Disasters: A Foundation for Resilience Stress-Testing”. This explored the psychological impacts of disasters through the lens of threat-agnosticism, contributing to the concept of resilience stress testing within the scope of AGILE project.

The AGILE Project’s 2nd General Assembly (GA) meeting took place in Setúbal, Portugal, from 8th to 10th October 2024. The event was hosted by partner ENA and brought together consortium members from 15 organizations across Europe, USA and Japan to discuss progress, key milestones, and the project’s next steps in enhancing resilience against High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events.

Key Outcomes of the Meeting:

Year 1 Achievements & Project Objectives:

The Year 1 progress report highlighted significant achievements and outlined key objectives for the upcoming period. The main areas of focus included:

• D3.1 Stress Test Methodology and Toolkit: Review and finalization of the methodology to integrate comments from internal reviews and GA discussions. Due in mid-November 2024.
• D1.2 AGILE’s Approach to HILP: Completion of the SWOT analysis on common failure points, vulnerabilities, and resilience. Due in mid-November 2024.
• D1.3 Strategic Foresight in HILP: Development of a new deliverable focusing on the role of strategic foresight, lateral thinking, and creativity in AGILE’s approach to HILP, due by January 2025.

To ensure the timely submission of high-quality deliverables, any identified risks will be communicated to the Coordinator, with due date adjustments available in consultation with the Project Officer.

Work Package Updates:

Each work package leader provided updates on progress, including research findings, collaborations, and developments in methodologies for risk assessment, resilience strategies, and stress-testing frameworks.

Future Deliverables:

The consortium reviewed upcoming deliverables, including publications, reports, and a collaborative online platform designed to improve knowledge-sharing across stakeholders involved in disaster risk management (DRM).

Collaborative Workshops:

Interactive workshops enabled participants to engage in discussions on improving the project’s impact, with a focus on integrating real-world applications in disaster response and climate change resilience.

Networking and Partnerships:

The event fostered networking opportunities between research institutions, NGOs, SMEs, first responders, and government bodies, strengthening collaborations for future project activities.

Keynote by Patricia Gaspar:

A highlight of the event was the inspiring keynote speech by Patricia Gaspar, where she addressed the importance of cross-sector collaboration in disaster risk management and resilience building. She emphasized the need for innovative approaches to address the challenges posed by HILP events, and how collective efforts can improve preparedness and response at local, regional, and global levels.

Next Steps:

Attendees outlined key actions for the next phase of the project, emphasizing the importance of maintaining momentum and cross-sectoral collaboration to achieve the project’s ambitious goals.

Closing Remarks:

The GA meeting concluded with a renewed commitment from all partners to address systemic risks and enhance the resilience of European societies.

The HILP Reference Library Development Workshop held today was a tremendous success! Your enthusiasm and active participation made this event a great success. We are pleased to share that we have successfully achieved all the goals we set for this workshop.

Highlights from our Workshop:

• Well-Received and Active Participation: We were delighted to see so many engaged and passionate experts join us, contributing their valuable insights
• High Relevance: The topics discussed were clearly of significant importance to everyone involved, underscoring the critical nature of our collective work
• Clear Scope and Objectives: We successfully outlined the scope and objectives of our project, setting the stage for future collaborations

A huge thank you to everyone who participated and shared their expertise. Your insights are invaluable as we work towards building a comprehensive reference library on historical High Impact Low Probability (HILP) disasters. Together, we are shaping a more resilient future.

The AGILE project held its 1st General Assembly (GA) meeting remotely on 19th March, six months after the project’s launch. The meeting brought together representatives from all 14 project partners, providing a key platform to review progress, discuss deliverables, and align on the next steps for the consortium.

Project Coordination and Management

• Two deliverables (D7.1, D8.1) and one milestone (MS1) were achieved; four more deliverables (D1.1, D6.1, D7.2, D7.3) and two milestones (MS2, MS3) are due by April 2024.
• All partners were reminded to identify and report potential project risks in SharePoint
• Grant Agreement amendment: budget shifts, inclusion of Tohoku University as a consortium partner, and timeline corrections.

Conceptualising HILP as Concurrent, Cascading, and Systemic Events

• D1.1 is nearing finalization; the working definition of HILP events was piloted within the consortium and refined through feedback.
• Characteristics of “low probability” and “high impact” were defined and voted on as mandatory components for identifying HILP events.
• Partners are requested to provide additional details on emergency management challenges for integration into D1.1
• Quantitative analysis of probability and impact planned under Task 1.2.

Multi-Disciplinary HILP Reference Library

• Develop an architecture and database of HILP events, including causes, triggers, and impacts.
• A survey is planned for early May and a workshop for late June to gather insights on influencing factors.
• Target groups to be defined by task leaders; ethics review required for survey deployment.
• Focus on identifying factors that differentiate HILP from non-HILP events.

Risk and Resilience Stress-Test Methodology

• Aligning methodologies with WP1 and WP2 to ensure integrated stakeholder feedback.
• Refining tools and approaches for effective risk and resilience stress testing.

Scenario Co-Development and Stress Test Implementation

• Collaborating with case study partners to develop realistic scenarios and implement stress tests.

Evidence-Based Planning, Capacity Building, and Risk Communication

• Challenges include data availability, confidentiality, and lessons learned from past events.
• Strengthening ties with regional authorities through case study partners for stress tests.

Dissemination, Communication, and Exploitation

• Stakeholder database expansion through WP1 interviews and WP2 surveys.
• Collaboration with case study partners will ensure effective outreach.
• Website launched by Week 12; social media goals to be adjusted in the Grant Agreement amendment.
• Ensure GDPR compliance for stakeholder contact data sharing.

The AGILE project officially launched on 1st October 2023, with its Kick-Off Meeting held at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy. The event brought together representatives from the project’s 14 partners, including universities, research centers, NGOs, first responders, and local, regional, and national authorities.

AGILE (AGnostic risk management for high Impact Low probability Events) aims to enhance societal resilience to High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events by developing a comprehensive definition of HILP and creating practical tools and methodologies to address these risks.

The meeting agenda encompassed key project milestones, such as conceptualizing HILP events as concurrent, cascading, and systemic risks, building a multi-disciplinary HILP reference library, and introducing an innovative risk and resilience stress-testing methodology.

Highlights of the meeting included:

• An introduction to consortium partners and detailed case studies
• Scientific insights into socio-ecological systems and stakeholder mapping
• An informative presentation by the European Commission Project Officer
• In-depth discussions on dissemination, communication, and exploitation strategies

Collaborative group sessions focused on refining definitions, scenarios, and methodologies while establishing governance structures and planning for the first project year. With clear next steps identified, AGILE is set to deliver impactful solutions for managing HILP events and strengthening disaster risk management capacities.